JEAIL > Volume 19(1); 2026 > East Asian Observer
Research Paper
Published online: May 30, 2026
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.14330/jeail.2026.19.1.10

The Philippine Marcos Jr. Administration’s South China Sea Policy: An Analysis from a Neoclassical Realist Perspective

Yiwei Liu & Xingjun Liu
Sun Yat-sen University
Department of History, 135 Xingangxi Lu, Guangzhou 510000, P.R. China
Corresponding Author: liuyw235@mail.sysu.edu.cn

ⓒ Copyright YIJUN Institute of International Law
This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial License (http://creativecommons.org/liceInha University Law School, 100 Inharo, Michuhol-gu, Incheon 22212 Korea. / nses/by-nc/3.0/) which permits unrestricted non-commercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Abstract
The complexity of the Philippines’ South China Sea policy necessitates a multilevel analysis of the key tenets of the Marcos Jr. administration’s approach. From the perspective of neoclassical realism, the structural factor, primarily shaped by the trilateral dynamics among China, the United States, and the Philippines, remains a key determinant influencing Manila’s policy formulation. Nevertheless, the mediating function of intervening variables, including President Marcos Jr.’s personal perception and the stances of Manila’s domestic actors, substantially shapes how the structural factor is transformed into concrete policy. As a result, the Marcos Jr. administration insists on not abandoning its maritime claims, strengthens its control over the occupied islands and reefs, employs diplomatic channels to maximize strategic gains, closely aligns with the US, and expands its network of security partnerships. To promote regional peace and stability, the relevant stakeholders ought to finalize the Code of Conduct in the South China Sea in the near future.

Keywords : Marcos Jr. administration, Philippine South China Sea Policy, US-Philippine Alliance, Neoclassical Realism

View the Full Text